Each week, TODAY’s long-running Big Read series delves into trends and issues that matter. This week, we look at why the terrorism threat remains high in South-east Asia, especially after the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria suffered heavy defeats in the Middle East. This is a shortened version of the full feature, which can be found here.

SINGAPORE — For the terrorist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), South-east Asia has all the ingredients needed to become its next cauldron of violence: Porous borders, existence of logistical bases, weak regimes, poor enforcement measures, and disenchantment among marginalised Muslims.

“South-east Asia has been dubbed as the second front for ISIS,” said Professor Mohd Kamarulnizam Abdullah, who researches on terrorism and religious violence at Universiti Utara Malaysia.

It comes as the group has been badly battered in the Middle East, with its army and territories  just a shadow of its once-formidable self.

But terrorism experts say the ISIS ideology — which includes the setting up of a caliphate — is far from dead as it sets its sights on turning South-east Asia as the next terrorism hotspot.

This does not bode well for Singapore, even though the authorities have kept the country safe to date, including thwarting an ISIS-inspired plan to attack Marina Bay Sands from the Indonesian island of Batam in 2016.

But it will become increasingly harder to keep the country terror-free as the web of terror closes in on the island.

A TERRORISM HOTSPOT

In 2017, militant and insurgent groups in South-east Asia which forged alliances with ISIS committed 348 terror acts which resulted in 292 deaths. Analysts said such alliances facilitate the “exchange of talent, skills and material resources” while smaller militant or terrorist groups also attain a higher level of legitimacy and support if they associate themselves with ISIS’ ideology. Such collaboration was evident during the Marawi siege in southern Philippines in 2017.

Other areas of concern:

• Dr Mohamed Ali, an S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) expert in religious extremism, said the definition of a terrorist is no longer clear-cut. Now, individuals can just carry out attacks without having to go through militant training.
• The rising exclusivist sentiment in the region, namely in Indonesia and Malaysia, has also added fuel to fire.
• Research fellow Muhd Faizal Abdul Rahman from RSIS’ Centre of Excellence for National Security stressed that exclusivism “forms the pathway to terrorism” as it conditions and individual’s mind and values into believing that others are “less human, less moral and deserves to be harmed”.

INDONESIA: AN ONGOING BATTLE

Indonesian counterterrorism analysts said that the terror threat in the country has evolved in two areas: The people conducting the attacks and the weapons used.

• Dr Noor Huda Ismail, who founded the Institute for International Peace Building to rehabilitate and reintegrate former terrorists into the society, said that terrorist operations have morphed from group operations to lone wolves, and later involving women as well as the entire family unit.
• No longer is it necessary to make or smuggle in traditional bombs or firearms to carry out an attack, said Dr Najib Azca, the director of the Centre for Security and Peace Studies at Indonesia’s Gadjah Mada University.
• Jihadists can just use vehicles to ram into crowds, or simply use household items like a kitchen knife to stab as many people as they can, he added.

Other issues in Indonesia:

• Radicalisation taking place behind bars, partly due to the lack of capacity in the prisons. This has resulted in arrested jihadists being placed in the same cells as offenders of other crimes. “That’s where they influence the others,” said Dr Noor Huda.
• Extremists released from prisons as well as returning fighters from the Middle East conflict could also radicalise others.

MALAYSIA: DEALING WITH RADICAL FOREIGNERS

Prof Kamarulnizam of Universiti Utara Malaysia attributes the influx of foreign extremists to the country to the region’s porous borders as well as Malaysia’s openness in welcoming Muslims from other countries.

• According to Malaysia’s authorities, the number of terror suspects arrested since 2013 stands at 445.
• Slightly over a quarter – or more than 120 of them – were foreigners, some of whom were directly involved in a number of plots planned by extremists groups.
• Since 2013, the authorities have thwarted 23 planned attacks.

Other threats Malaysia has to deal with:

• Though authorities have dismantled terrorist networks such as JI, Al Qaeda or ISIS, they still pose a significant threat, as their ideologies remain deeply entrenched in the minds of supporters and sympathisers, said analysts.
• “Total eradication of ideology is almost impossible. It can be tamed and ‘domesticated’, but not total eradication,” stressed Ahmad El-Muhammady, a counterterrorism analyst at the International Islamic University Malaysia.
• Another issue of concern for Malaysia is “political radicalisation”. Mr El-Muhammady said it involves spreading exclusivist views such as telling Muslims they cannot celebrate the festivals of other faiths and that they should not accept non-believers.

SINGAPORE: CHANGING MINDSETS

Since 2015, a total of 22 radicalised Singaporeans have been dealt with under the Internal Security Act — double the number between 2007 and 2014, according to the Singapore Terrorism Threat Assessment Report 2019.

Analysts said that Singaporeans’ complacent attitude towards terror-related issues are a source of concern:

• According to the MHA report, only around 20 per cent felt that the threat is imminent, that an attack might occur in Singapore within the next five years.
• Mr Faizal, the RSIS research fellow, said that “some complacency” still exists as “some Singaporeans may take our long period of peace for granted”.
• “There’s still that thinking that terrorism is a Middle East problem. It will never happen here,” added Associate Professor Bilveer Singh of the National University of Singapore.

What Singapore’s authorities say:

• Some analysts noted that the complacency among Singaporeans could reflect their high level of confidence in our security agencies.
• Senior Parliamentary Secretary for Home Affairs Sun Xueling said that such a perception is “not completely unexpected”.
  “Our security agencies have worked hard to keep the terror threat at bay, but therein lies the challenge of how to keep complacency at bay,” she said in an email response to TODAY’s queries.
• Ms Sun said the Government is beefing up its SGSecure efforts – with new initiatives to be rolled out in suburban malls and private estates.
  Being aware of the different types of threats “is an important first step”, said Ms Sun, but “it is not enough”.
  SGSecure aims to prepare the community to collectively and effectively respond to such threats, and to an attack when it takes place, she added.