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Asia’s prospects positive despite global uncertainties: DBS CEO

SINGAPORE — While there are a number of uncertainties surrounding the state of the global economy, with the United States in particular giving off mixed signals as it inches its way towards a stronger economic position, the prospects for the Asia-Pacific remain positive even with a slowing China.

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SINGAPORE — While there are a number of uncertainties surrounding the state of the global economy, with the United States in particular giving off mixed signals as it inches its way towards a stronger economic position, the prospects for the Asia-Pacific remain positive even with a slowing China.

“All of these stories about Asia’s and China’s demise are a bit premature,” said DBS chief executive Piyush Gupta yesterday at an economic outlook briefing held by the bank.

“On a macro level, China is a US$8 trillion (S$10 trillion) to US$9 trillion economy. Even with a 6 per cent growth rate, it’s still US$500 billion of growth. That’s a lot more growth than any other country in any other part of the world has. So are there opportunities to do good business and find good money there? The answer has to be ‘yes’,” he said.

“So, on balance, Asia’s prospects — anchored on a more stable China than people think and a resurgent India in the mid-term — are likely to be somewhat better than expected,” Mr Gupta added.

China, the world’s second-largest economy, has seen growth moderate from three decades of double-digit annual expansion as it undergoes broad restructuring. A Reuters poll in April forecast the country’s economic growth could slow to 7.3 per cent in the second quarter from an 18-month low of 7.4 per cent in the previous quarter, with full-year growth of 7.3 per cent in 2014 — the weakest in 24 years.

Despite those economic uncertainties, the market remains a priority for DBS, South-east Asia’s biggest bank by assets, said Mr Gupta.

But prospects for the US are not as clear-cut. “For the first time in a long time, I’m actually quite confused about the US market, because the data coming out of the US is very, very mixed,” he said. “US GDP (gross domestic product) growth will be lucky to reach 1.6 to 1.8 per cent this year. This is remarkable because the earlier consensus forecast was 3 per cent ... And since then, the consensus forecast has been coming down.”

The US economy in the first quarter saw its sharpest pullback since the depths of the last recession, falling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.9 per cent as consumer spending cooled.

“Consumption in the first quarter went up only 1 per cent. And in April and May, the consumption numbers were also weak; even after the impact of winter wore off, consumption is still not kicking in. In the second quarter, consumption will be somewhere to the tune of 1.2 per cent,” said Mr Gupta.

“But some of the data has been good. Mortgage and housing — which is an important part of the US economy — had been slowing last year, but went up 19 per cent in May, just out of nowhere,” he added. “Job payroll is also holding up quite okay … Industrial production and the purchasing managers’ index were also up in May.

“So, (because of) slow consumption, GDP growth won’t be strong this year, (with) clearly no wage-price inflation. But some signs of growth are coming from manufacturing. When you put these together, it’s no wonder it’s difficult to call where the US market is going.”

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