Just as the rooster’s crow signals a new dawn, the year of the Rooster is likely to usher in a new era of power politics in China under President Xi Jinping, who is expected to ruffle some feathers in the run-up to deciding on the country’s top leadership line-up later in the year.

Mr Xi, who was conferred the title of “core” leader by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), looks set to serve his second five-year term. So, too, will Premier Li Keqiang. But five other seats in the most powerful body — the Politburo Standing Committee — are up for grabs, as the current leaders are slated to retire.

Yet there is uncertainty about whether Mr Xi, who is also party general secretary, will break the rules and keep leaders who are beyond the mandatory retirement age of 68. He could also turn rogue and refuse to anoint his successor so soon, as there is speculation that he intends to stay beyond his 10-year leadership tenure.

As the jockeying for power continues, political watchers continue to read tea leaves on the rising political stars who could make it into the Politburo Standing Committee. But the opacity of Chinese elite politics continues to befuddle experts who try to unravel the secrets of Zhongnanhai.

Will the Politburo Standing Committee remain a group of seven? Will it be stacked with Mr Xi’s lieutenants or comprise leaders of other factions to ensure harmony? How will this new group lead an increasingly assertive China in this new world order?

It is perhaps not as momentous as the 18th Party Congress five years ago, where there was a transfer of power from former president Hu Jintao to Mr Xi, marred by dramatic political scandals such as the fall of former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai. But the 19th Party Congress is equally riveting in what it reveals about Mr Xi’s leadership legacy.

“The top priority is preparing for the 19th Party Congress, which involves ensuring that his allies are moved into top positions in the provinces, the Central Committee, the Politburo, Politburo Standing Committee, and Central Military Commission,” Dr Scott Kennedy from the Center of Strategic and International Studies, who specialises in Chinese economic policy and global economic relations, told TODAY.

“Beyond this, he will continue the anti-corruption campaign, though it may shift into a second ‘institutionalised’ phase, where the focus is on having cadres avoid committing corruption, and having the government and courts play a larger role in investigating and punishing corruption.”

The next pressing issue, added Dr Zeng Jinghan from the Royal Holloway, University of London’s Department of Politics and International Relations, is to boost China’s lacklustre economy.

“It will affect the entire party’s legitimacy, given that economic growth is a key source of legitimacy in China,” he said.

China’s economy is expected to grow at around 6.5 per cent this year, less than the 6.7 per cent of 2016.

Foreign relations could also have an impact on leadership in China, Dr Zeng noted, referring to the rocky start of Sino-United States relations under US President-elect Donald Trump, who took a protocol-breaking phone call from Taiwan’s president.

“If Trump, for example, gets away from the one-China policy or further provokes China on the Taiwan issue, this may empower the nationalists and hardliners. The People’s Liberation Army, for example, may get a bigger say at the 19th Party Congress,” he shared.

THE RIGHT LEADERS

Despite the uncertainty, Chinese political watchers are certain that the new team of leaders will definitely be younger than its predecessors.

This is because the previous team from the 18th Party Congress was “not really successful” as it produced a leadership for only one term, explained Professor Huang Jing from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

Out of the seven leaders, only Mr Xi and Mr Li are eligible to serve a second term.

“The reason is (former presidents) Jiang (Zemin) and Hu had compromised the transition in such a way that Mr Xi will only be allowed to lead the politburo for five years — one term,” he said. “When Jiang became the leader in the 14th Party Congress and Hu became the leader in the 16th Party Congress, they both had teams that could serve two terms.”

Now that most of Mr Xi’s team has to leave, he will have to rebuild, and this creates an enormous challenge. But whether Mr Xi can form a new team that is loyal to him is debatable, as analysts are not sure if he has amassed sufficient power to dictate the succession arrangements.

Mr Xi faced an undercurrent of strong resistance within the leadership and the party establishment after gaining little respect from factions across the political spectrum, said Mr Zhang Lifan, a party historian formerly with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in the South China Morning Post.

“He faces strong resistance within the establishment due to all his controversial policies, and so many people are just waiting for him to make a mistake,” he added.

Mr Xi has overseen several controversial policies that some say have alienated the rank-and-file of the party, including a massive anti-corruption drive, creating a cult of personality, and strengthening the grip of political control over society.

The strict discipline arising from the anti-corruption drive has also stymied efforts to stimulate the economy, as officials hesitate to sign off on new infrastructure projects for fear of contravening complex bureaucratic regulations.

Despite the lack of factional ties that Mr Jiang and Mr Hu used to ensure succession, Mr Xi appears to have consolidated power quickly —and decisively — in the past three years with demotions, promotions and the nationwide anti-corruption purges, which have resulted in the installation of key allies in task forces more powerful than party committees. Trust and loyalty, instead of experience, appear to drive these appointments to build his influence.

Mr Xi, however, may well look beyond his power bases as he expands his talent pool in search of new allies.

Commenting on the composition of the Politburo Standing Committee post-autumn, Professor Bo Zhiyue, the director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, said that four out of seven of the existing members are almost certain to retire.

“What they (those who are retiring) want is to ensure they, themselves, and their families are going to be safe after their retirement. They are not going to be very competitive,” said Prof Bo.

In terms of seniority, those who might be promoted from the Politburo include Vice-Premier Wang Yang and Vice-President Li Yuanchao. In terms of leaders from the next generation of party cadres, it is believed that Guangdong’s party secretary Hu Chunhua and Chongqing’s party secretary Sun Zhengcai are frontrunners, he noted.

Prof Bo added that Mr Li Zhanshu, Mr Xi’s highly trusted chief of staff, is also “probably one of the strongest candidates” to join the standing committee. Mr Li, who almost always accompanies the President on domestic and overseas trips, is arguably Mr Xi’s most powerful ally after anti-corruption tsar Wang Qishan.

It remains to be seen if Mr Xi will depart from tradition and not name his successor this year.

When the late leader Deng Xiaoping made Mr Jiang the top leader, he also appointed a younger politician, Mr Hu, to the Political Standing Committee — one rung below the Politburo Standing Committee.

This practice continued, with Mr Xi annointed as Mr Hu’s successor in 2007, five years before Mr Xi took over the top post.

This means Mr Xi’s successor should be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee soon. But this would also mean curbing his power — limiting it to two terms as President — a rule also set by Deng.

Will he delay leadership succession to serve a third term? “It’s hard to read his mind, but based on his writing, he seems to place a high priority on making China a great international power without any interruptions. In his mind, perhaps overseeing this historical process is more important than informal rules on term limitation,” said Victor Shih, associate professor at the University of California, San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy.

Prof Bo of the Contemporary China Research Centre dismissed talk that Mr Xi would serve an additional term as a rumour, adding that what is more urgent next year is to decide on who will enter the Politburo Standing Committee.

“This rumour has a purpose. He (Mr Xi) wanted to show that he will stay here longer, he is more powerful and you should take this into account when discussing the future plans for the 19th Party Congress,” said Prof Bo.

But Mr Xi could extend his tenure without breaking any rules. China’s Constitution sets a two-term limit for Presidents, but there is no cap for the CCP’s general secretary. So Mr Xi could relinquish his state title, but hang on to the more powerful party rank.

Mr Jiang stepped down as President in 2002, but retained his chairmanship of the Central Military Commission (CMC) till 2004.

“He may follow Jiang’s model of retaining only the CMC chair position after two terms,” said Dr Li Nan from the National University of Singapore’s East Asia Institute.

Mr Xi could also separate the three positions — the head of state, party head and military commander — and give them to three people.

“He can stay as party head and give away the other two positions. Another option is for Mr Xi to restore the title of chairman of the party, like Mao (Zedong),” said Prof Huang.

Regardless of the choices Mr Xi makes, there are likely to be internal power struggles within the party ranks.

Whether the shadow power play spills into the public depends on whistleblowers, sounding the alarm for party fissures like how the rooster crows at dawn to wake everyone up.