A new year and the start of a new decade are upon us and experts will no doubt be busy trying to predict the challenges that lie ahead. Besides the economic slowdown, homeland security deserves attention because peace and prosperity are two sides of the same coin.

Prediction, however, is fraught with uncertainties and unknowns. The words of Jedi Master Yoda come to mind: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future.”

I believe that a retrospection of the past decade can enlighten us better on the megatrends that shape the present and will influence external and internal events which may affect Singapore in 2020 and beyond. These megatrends straddle the realms of public order, cyberspace, geopolitics and terrorism.

PUBLIC ORDER

Public order issues, like the Hong Kong unrest, are not implausible in Singapore. Hong Kong is the latest monumental unrest to mark a decade of anger against state power and politicians. This decade began in 2010 with the Arab Spring that erupted in the Middle East due to politico-economic grievances.

To prevent unrest, the Singapore Government enacted the Public Order and Safety (Special Powers) Act in 2018 to enhance its Homefront Crisis Management system.

To pre-empt frustration that may spark unrest, government agencies are reaching out more to Singaporeans to understand their concerns and collaborate on important issues.

This is part of the Singapore Together movement for inclusive governance.

CYBERSPACE

Cyberspace and social networks connect people, issues and ideologies globally and influence events in real time. The Hong Kong unrest is a continuation of the "Facebook Revolution" and "Twitter Rebellion" that began during the Arab Spring about one year after social media became mainstream in 2009.

Today, cyberspace has evolved into a chaotic battlespace. Hostile dissenters, state and non-state actors can coordinate an informational war of ideas and “truths” with destabilising or violent acts in real life.

While Singapore is concerned with social media being a channel for online radicalisation, the informational war can cast a bigger spell of fear and anger over the hearts and minds of Singaporeans.

The spread and localisation of online falsehoods, conspiracy theories and exaggerated statements risk thrusting Singapore into the global trust deficit between and among people and national institutions.

To counter informational forces that weaken trust and cohesion, the Government implemented the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (Pofma) and Digital Media and Information Literacy Framework.

GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitics may intersect with civil unrest and cyberspace, hence, adding another international twist to homeland security challenges.

Hostile foreign states may indirectly polarise Singaporeans and politicise local issues to interfere in Singapore.

Such interference pits angry citizens against national institutions. Foreign states may use instruments of influence — such as culture, ideas and economics — that appear deceptively benign compared to guns and bombs. The return of the “yellow peril” affecting multicultural societies in the West exemplifies the virulent consequences of malign foreign influence.

Fear of China’s growing influence fuels racism by stereotyping people of Chinese ethnicity, regardless of their citizenship and loyalty, as domestic threats.

To keep foreign influence in check, Singapore amended the Maintenance of Religious Harmony Act in 2019 among other measures.

Additionally, foreign states may deploy cyberattacks in coordination with influence operations in an era of declining multilateralism and great power rivalry between the United States and China.

Singapore, being a Smart Nation and hub in the global economy and international order, has already seen how it can fall victim to cyber attackers during the monumental 2018 SingHealth cyber attack.

The Government had announced recommendations for better data security in November 2019. However, the recent data breach affecting the Ministry of Defence and the Singapore Armed Forces, and the rise of cyber crime underscore the difficulties in defending the cyber space against state actors and state-backed cyber criminals.

TERRORISM

Terrorism appears to be on the decline following the collapse of the Islamic State caliphate and death of its leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi in 2019. However, terrorist organisations are resilient as politico-economic risk factors that make extremist ideologies appealing and conflict zones that enable mobilisation persist.

Few would have believed that an obscure group could emerge from the remnants of Al Qaeda in Iraq after 2009 and shock the world by becoming a caliphate that controlled a vast territory at its peak.

Today, terrorism risk factors in the Middle East and Southeast Asia remain. The Xinjiang and Rohingya issues can add to the anger that feeds Islamist extremist ideologies. 

The rise of Far Right extremism — exemplified by the Christchurch attack in March 2019 — creates the conundrum of reciprocal radicalisation in which the actions of Far Right and Islamist terrorists reinforce each other’s anger and appeal. 

Terrorists are experimenting with new and alternative messaging platforms to seek refuge for their online activities. Indeed, terrorists are children of their time and as their motivations and tactics evolve, so too must counter-extremism strategies adapt.

FOSTERING TRUE RESILIENCE

Looking ahead, Singapore is entering a crucial nation-building phase as the 13th General Election approaches amid these megatrends. 

More cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns from local and foreign actors, for example, that aim to undermine our political processes and polarise Singaporeans may happen.

Defences such as legislation, SGSecure and high-tech Home Team agencies aim to mitigate threats that emanate from these megatrends. 

The target — people — should also strengthen their resilience as a holistic defence against threats. 

First, the digital age paradoxically necessitates Singaporeans to prepare for cyberattack contingencies in which they must endure the inconvenience of life with minimal technology. For example, we should have ways to maintain a semblance of normalcy in both our work and life if cyberattacks disrupt essential public and commercial services.

Second, threats can cause harm and damage but more importantly undermine resilience by fuelling anger to target the values and soul of a society. 

For example, legislation may curb malicious actors and their actions that attempt to manipulate people’s opinions. However, legislation can only shape how people behave, not what they feel and think of each other.

To prevent society from imploding, Singaporeans should be cautious of ideas and information that amplify fear and anger towards each other and national institutions. 

I surmised that we should be mindful of Yoda’s other adage: “Fear is the path to the dark side. Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering.”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Muhammad Faizal Abdul Rahman is a Research Fellow with the Centre of Excellence for National Security, a unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University. He previously worked in the Ministry of Home Affairs, the Singapore Police Force and the National Security Coordination Secretariat.