Terengganu has emerged as a frontline state in the 14th Malaysian General Elections.

The Barisan Nasional’s narrow majority of two seats in the state assembly, divisions within Umno Terengganu and the unpopularity of the chief minister have made the state competitive for the opposition parties.

It is the first time since 1999 that the socio-political conditions are ripe for the opposition Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) to win control over the state.

The track record of the Umno state government is mixed.

While the city has seen the development of various infrastructure projects such as the Kenyir Lake free trade zone, and the rebuilding of the Sultan Mizan Zainal Abidin Stadium, many residents of Terengganu complained about the rising living costs mainly due to the introduction of the Goods and Services tax.

The development of mammoth projects has been criticised as not beneficial to the local residents.

One opposition leader in PAS noted that the property development in Terengganu is done injudiciously.

He noted that many of the new office and residential properties have remained uninhabited.

Regardless of the developmental projects in Terengganu, chief minister Ahmad Razif Abdul Rahman has had to manage a politically turbulent five years.

The factional nature of Umno politics in the state has seen his government nearly falling in 2016 when Ahmad Said, the former chief minister, and another rogue Umno state assemblyman moved a vote of no confidence against Ahmad Razif.

Only a last-minute intervention from Prime Minister Najib Razak averted the collapse of the Terengganu government.

The choice of candidates in the upcoming elections seemed to be a balancing act of the chief minister, as many old faces in Umno Terengganu, including Mr Ahmad Said, were retained as candidates.

Such a move could prove to be a bane for Umno, as young voters making up a significant portion of the Terengganu electorate have complained that they cannot relate to these ‘recycled’ candidates who do not understand their aspirations.

PAS’ STRATEGY IN TRENGGANU

Terengganu is one of the states that PAS is gunning for in the upcoming elections.

As part of this strategy, the party is fielding 15 young candidates and has offered a 20-point manifesto including opening nurseries in every government department and providing a RM300 rebate for the purchase of motor-cycles.

Despite the party’s official stance on the centrality of Islam and hudud laws, there was no mention of Islam or hudud in the manifesto.

This indicates the party’s understanding that the bread-and-butter issue is much more important to the electorates than the religious one.

The decision for party president, Hadi Awang, to contest just the parliamentary seat and not the state seat seems to signal the party’s discernment about the importance of a younger candidate for chief minister.

While the party has yet to announce its official chief minister candidate, party insiders suggest that Dr Samsuri Mokhtar, an academic with a British doctorate degree in aeronautical engineering and political secretary to Mr Hadi, will likely be PAS’ choice.

The announcement of Dr Samsuri’s candidature in the state seat of Rhu Redang, held by Mr Hadi for more than two decades, seems to have given a slight edge to PAS due to his professional background, close relationship to Mr Hadi and technocratic-styled leadership.

In an interview I had with Dr Samsuri, he did not deny that if PAS forms the next state government, the party will be more focused on developmental issues rather than Islamic issues such as the implementation of hudud in the state.

The party has changed its election strategy from big ceramahs featuring its top leaders by organising smaller talks by the popular preacher Ustaz Azhar Idrus, soccer tournaments with young voters and barbeques with residents aimed at convincing voters to support the party.

The battle for Terengganu has been complicated by the presence of the breakaway party of PAS, Parti Amanah Nasional (Amanah), which is part of the opposition Pakatan Harapan pact.

While admitting that it is hard for Amanah to be a viable third option in the upcoming elections, Terengganu PH chief Raja Kamarul Bahrin Shah noted that Amanah and its coalition partners have slowly gained momentum in Terengganu.

Citing a recent rally held in Dungun, Terengganu attended by a number of the PH’s bigwigs including Dr Mahathir Mohamed, he was surprised by the large crowd that attended the rally.

Amanah is expecting that the party will receive support from disgruntled PAS members who are unwilling to associate with the party publicly due to fear of being socially outcasted by PAS members.

PH leaders in Terengganu are also of the view that there seems to be a complicit understanding between PAS and Umno to ensure that PAS will win control of the state government.

This, according to them, is seen in Umno’s decision to field unpopular candidates and to retain the current chief minister in a state seat despite his unpopularity. It is argued that PAS will play spoiler to the PH by fielding candidates in more than 150 parliamentary seats in return for securing the state government in Kelantan and Terengganu.

Regardless of the ‘Terengganu Conspiracy’ about the tacit cooperation between PAS and Umno, for many Terengganu residents, the contest for Terengganu is between these two parties.

The poor choice of candidates and campaign strategy by Umno, PAS’ innovative campaign strategy and a decent probable chief minister candidate has given PAS an upper hand at least at the level of state seats.

A win for PAS in Terengganu will strengthen the position of the party’s ideologue that the party is better off standing alone than to join the PH coalition.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Mohamed Nawab Mohamed Osman is Assistant Professor and Coordinator of Malaysia Program at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).  This is part of a series of commentaries by RSIS on the 14th Malaysian General Election.