With Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s parliamentary reply yesterday confirming the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) two months ago, the signs are clearer that Singapore’s 12th General Election (GE) will be held in this Golden Jubilee year of independence. However, his reply does not provide clarity as to when the GE will be called. The ruling People’s Action Party craves the element of surprise as to when exactly the nation will go to the polls.

The EBRC’s task is to provide for fair and balanced representation through adjusting electoral boundaries by looking at population shifts and housing developments since the previous boundary delineation exercise in early 2011.

Given that there are 2.46 million eligible voters today, and assuming that the current Member-of-Parliament-to-voter ratio of one to 26,000 is maintained, there could be as many as 94 or 95 electoral seats, up from the current 87. However, the EBRC may recommend a smaller increase or no change in the number of elected Members of Parliament (MPs). Incremental change is always preferred in our political system.

Compared with the lead-up to the 2011 GE, the announcement of the establishment of the EBRC comes two months after the fact.

The last time around, the EBRC’s formation in October 2010 was announced that month itself and its report submitted in February 2011.

Given that the previous two EBRCs took four months to complete its study and submit its recommendations, we can expect the current EBRC to submit its report in the coming weeks.

There are currently 15 Group Representation Constituencies (GRCs), comprising two four-member GRCs, 11 five-member GRCs and two six-member GRCs. This translates to an average of five MPs per GRC. Mr Lee has directed that the average size of the GRCs in the next GE be below five MPs and that there be at least 12 Single Member Constituencies (SMCs).

It is likely that there will be more four-member GRCs and there will perhaps even be the return of three-member GRCs, which featured only in the 1988 GE, when the GRC scheme was first introduced. There may also be no more six-member GRCs, currently helmed by Mr Lee (Ang Ko Kio GRC) and Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean (Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC).

This move towards smaller GRCs is to be welcomed. Typically, for division of duties and responsibilities, each MP focuses on looking after his or her own district in the GRC. Consequently, MPs in a GRC are less likely to know the voters in the other districts, resulting in voters finding it harder to identify with the enlarged electoral division, or with the other MPs of the GRC.

In 2010, PM Lee said the move towards smaller GRCs was to strengthen the link between voters and their MPs as well as have candidates and their political parties provide voters with a strong incentive to vote for them. Smaller GRCs also reduces, but will not remove, the “riding the coat-tails” effect, in which less-well-known ruling party candidates are teamed up with heavyweight ministers.

If the proportion of GRC seats is maintained at close to 90 per cent of all elected seats, then there will be more GRCs in the next GE than the current 15. More minority candidates will also be needed. The current number of 12 SMCs may increase. For the Opposition, the barriers to entry will be lowered, as it would be easier to form smaller slates of candidates to contest the GRCs. But this could also result in more multi-cornered battles.

MUST BE SEEN AS NON-PARTISAN

It is not so much the establishment of the EBRC or even the submission of its report to the Prime Minister that signals the GE is near. Rather, it is the publication of the EBRC report that marks the frenetic start of election fever — for political parties and voters alike.

In the past, a General Election was called anywhere from one day to eight weeks from the EBRC report’s publication. It would be best for the report to be made available to the public at the time it is submitted to PM Lee.

In the 2006 GE, there was an interval of about half a month between the Prime Minister receiving the EBRC report and its publication. In 2011, the time lag was three days. The releasing of the EBRC report in a timely manner is only fair. Under our laws, there is no requirement for the appointment of an EBRC as part of the election process. The EBRC appointment is by convention.

Nonetheless, the EBRC’s role is critical for a level playing field. Voters are entitled to know why boundaries are redrawn and how they are done so. Otherwise, some Singaporeans may view the redrawing of boundaries as being calculated to undermine the Opposition or, at the very least, not to disadvantage the ruling party.

Ultimately, the EBRC’s work and report must not only be non-partisan, but must also be seen to be non-partisan. This is necessary to sustain confidence and legitimacy in the review of electoral boundaries, since that is an integral part of the electoral process.

Put simply, the process by which electoral boundaries are reviewed is just as important as the specific electoral boundaries changes that flow from the review. This is notwithstanding the reality that the redrawing of electoral boundaries is perceived to be inherently political and that it is probably impossible to have perfectly distributed electoral divisions.

For now, political parties and voters will wait with bated breath for the publication of the EBRC report.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Eugene K B Tan is associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University School of Law.