SINGAPORE — Against the backdrop of an ageing population, Singapore could require about 193,000 additional healthcare personnel, foreign domestic workers (FDWs) and construction labourers in 2030 to bring the total number to 691,000, or about 1.4 times the current demand.

Among the additional manpower needed, about 9 in 10 will have to be sourced overseas even after taking into account the Government’s move to tighten the foreign worker inflow.

These projections are according to an occasional paper released yesterday by the National Population and Talent Division (NPTD).

“While our foreign workforce policies will continue to remain tight, a sustainable supply of manpower in the healthcare and built environment sectors as well as for foreign domestic workers is required to serve the needs of Singaporeans,” the NPTD said.

The paper reiterated that the projections are not targets. “They are illustrations of the growth and change in the demand for workers in these sectors based on certain assumptions drawn from our demographic and demand trends,” it added.

While economists and sociologists TODAY spoke to were split on whether the projections were within expectations, they agreed that Singapore has little choice but to turn to foreign sources to fill these positions.

Associate Professor Tan Khee Giap from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy said: “Surely our local workforce are insufficient to cope with this projected demand. Even (if) all Singaporean households decide to produce half a dozen children from today, it would be too late as it would take time to grow up and be available to the needed job markets.”

The NPTD paper also projected that the number of citizens aged 80 years and above requiring care and support will increase from 70,000 last year to 210, 000 in 2030. By 2030, the number of elderly citizens living alone may also reach 92,000 — up from 29,000 last year — given Singapore’s declining fertility rate and increasing number of singles.

Of the 91,000 healthcare workers needed by 2030, the paper projects that about 28,000 will be foreigners. In comparison, among the 50,000 healthcare workers here last year, 13,000 were foreigners.

Despite the increased availability of centre-based care facilities for the elderly and children, FDWs will continue to play a role in supporting families so that Singaporeans, especially women, can enter or remain in the workforce, the paper noted.

According to the paper, there has been an increase in demand for FDWs among elderly non-working resident households. Last year, 12 per cent of these households employed at least one FDW, double the proportion in 2000.

The demand for construction Work Permit holders is expected to increase from about 250,000 last year to about 280,000 in the next two to three years. “With the projected productivity improvements under the Construction Productivity Roadmap, demand for construction Work Permit holders should be within the range of 250,000 to 300,000 by 2030,” the paper added.

Experts pointed out that while the construction sector has a greater scope for productivity improvements - such as automation - the same cannot be said for the healthcare sector. “It will be a big challenge for the healthcare service providers to fill up the job vacancies,” said SIM Global Education’s senior lecturer Tan Khay Boon.

Agreeing, sociologist Tan Ern Ser said that while jobs in the healthcare sector can be filled by Singaporeans, these would mostly be “high-end” positions. Supporting positions will still need to be filled by foreign labour, he said.

Assoc Prof Tan Khee Giap reminded Singaporeans to “think through the scenarios carefully before you start (to) form your view about foreign workers”.

“No one owes us domestic helpers and healthcare workers — to have them you must be able to afford to pay,” he said. “Luckily we are not in Europe or USA (where) 99 percent of them cannot afford this sort of help unless paid for by the welfare state. Are we demanding the same in the future?”