As we usher in the new year following an eventful 2019, TODAY takes a look at what to expect in several areas affecting Singaporeans' lives: Economy, property, environment, politics and transport. In the last of five instalments, we examine what is in store for Singapore’s transport sector.

SINGAPORE — Transport-related matters made the headlines several times in the past year, from the 7 per cent increase in bus and train fares to the banning of electric scooters on footpaths.

The public also saw a flying taxi demonstration above Marina Bay, a glimpse at how a future with self-driving cars could look like, even as more trials of automated vehicles are being conducted.

As Singapore continues moving towards its car-lite vision, TODAY spoke to transport experts to find out what commuters can expect in the new year.

A CAR-LITE SINGAPORE?

Transport Minister Khaw Boon Wan spelt out his car-lite goal — to make walking, cycling and riding public transport “the way of life for Singaporeans” — in 2016.

This vision came to life in recent years with the proliferation of personal mobility devices (PMD) across the island, with thousands of commuters and food delivery riders using it for their commutes and jobs.

Then came the sudden announcement on Nov 4 last year that e-scooters would be banned from footpaths, in response to a spate of accidents and fires caused by these devices.

This led to discontent among food delivery riders who depend on e-scooters as their main mode of transport, and it also slowed down the move towards active mobility.

Dr Walter Theseira, a transport economist at the Singapore University of Social Sciences (SUSS), said that while most of the 7,000 affected food delivery riders can use the trade-in grant given by the government to switch to other modes of transport, other riders cannot.

“There were perhaps close to 100,000 PMDs in circulation and only a small percentage were used actively for food delivery,” said Dr Theseira, who is also a Nominated Member of Parliament.

“So you have tens of thousands of other users and they are less likely to convert to e-bikes as they have no (trade-in) grant, and the idea of having to go onto the road probably doesn’t appeal to them because of the risk.”

Urban transport expert Park Byung Joon, who is also from the SUSS, expects more people to switch to bicycles and e-bikes.

“We will see more bicycles on the roads, but let's hope that not too many people take bikes and cause trouble,” he said.

“A reckless PMD rider won’t behave any better on a bicycle.”

He warned that having more cyclists on the road could result in increased tensions between them and car drivers.

“(Cyclists) are a lot slower, and drivers have to give space for the bicycle.”

“If many people switch over to riding bicycles we might have similar problems as those faced with PMDs.”

In the long term, however, experts believe that a car-lite future is still on the cards.

Transport engineering consultant Gopinath Menon said that active mobility will “still thrive as more and more bicycle paths are built, but at a slower pace”.

E-scooter users can still ride on 440km of bicycle paths and park connectors, but this pales in comparison to the roughly 5,500km of footpaths that they used to be able to access.

Prior to the ban, Senior Minister of State for Transport Lam Pin Min had said that the Land Transport Authority will expand Singapore’s cycling path network to 750km by 2025 and 1,300km by 2030.

Last month, Dr Lam said that the expansion could be brought forward by a couple of years.

Dr Theseira said that active mobility comes only when the infrastructure is there to support it.

“The most important thing is to have the path network extended so that most users are able to get to their final destinations without having to walk their devices too much,” he said.

“Once you have a long segment on your journey where you are required to walk your device, I don’t see active mobility being feasible.”

‘AT LEAST 20 YEARS’ BEFORE AVs PLY THE ROADS

Although test runs for automated vehicles (AVs) had been on the rise in 2019 and will gather pace over the next few years, experts said it will be a long time before such vehicles are a common presence on the roads.

Technological limitations and a lack of infrastructure are among some of the reasons they gave.

In October, the authorities announced that trials for driverless vehicles will be expanded to the whole of western Singapore over the next few years.

And from 2022 onwards, there are planned pilot deployments of AVs for public transport in Punggol, Tengah and Jurong Innovation District.

But experts said that commuters should not get too excited about these trials, with Assoc Prof Park pointing out that these have been going on for almost five years.

“We are at least 20 years away… I’m now in my 50s, and I’m not even sure if I’ll see (AVs on the roads) before I die,” he quipped.

He said that there are challenges that the technology needs to address — from the difficulty in reading the body language of pedestrians, to gauging the intention of fellow drivers.

Dr Theseira believes that the trials will not progress to “fully automated commercial use” anytime soon, and that the current infrastructure will need an overhaul should AVs become part of the everyday, especially for automated passenger helicopters or drones.

“It’s very unlikely that the costs and airspace regulation issues could ever be worked out to make it a mass transport option,” he said.

The only branch of AVs that could become commercially viable in the near future is the system of platooning, said Assoc Prof Park.

Platooning is where a human-driven vehicle leads a convoy of similar driverless vehicles, such as cargo trucks.

“Platooning is a lot simpler than (operating a regular self-driving vehicle),” he said. “Basically the driver is still leading the pack and they only have to make sure that the cars and computers are connected to each other.”

PUBLIC TRANSPORT FARES TO STABILISE

Last year saw bus and train fares increase by 7 per cent — the biggest percentage jump since 1998. This was caused largely by a spike in fuel and energy costs in 2017 and 2018.

Experts said that consumers can expect a slower increase in fares come the next fare review given that energy prices are expected to stabilise.

However, the introduction of the network capacity factor (NCF) into the fare formula last year could very well influence fares as well. The NCF measures how much the public transport network is utilised.

Dr Theseira said that unless there is a spike in inflation or energy costs internationally, he “does not see much pressure” on transport costs.

Transport analyst Terence Fan from the Singapore Management University agreed that the increase in transport fares will likely be less in 2020, but said that the NCF cannot be ignored.

The new component compares network usage against the capacity added. If the capacity increases faster than ridership, a higher fare hike could be allowed to cushion the cost of upgrades and expansion.

The network capacity factor would gradually increase due to increased rail capacity over the years, Assistant Professor Fan said.

From 2012 to 2017, there were nearly 1,000 buses and 200 trains injected into the network to build up capacity, the Public Transport Council (PTC) said.

Dr Theseira said that the increase in network capacity resulting in increased fares makes economic sense.

“What people don’t appreciate is that only crowded public transport services cover operating costs,” he said. “A train or bus where you have plenty of seats available cannot cover operating costs, just like an airplane which is not full cannot cover costs.”

Between 2012 and 2016, annual operating costs increased by over S$900 million, said the PTC. Annual fare revenue increased by around S$230 million over the same period, mostly due to ridership growth — but this only covered 25 per cent of the increased operating costs.

Dr Theseira added that the “big question” heading into the next few years will be less of how much the capacity increases, but whether bus and train services can be optimised such that the capacity increase can be met with an increase in commuters using the transport modes.

“If NCF reverses the trend of increasing fares, it will be because we have optimised services further, which means a bit more crowdedness,” he said.