SINGAPORE — With almost a third of the People’s Action Party’s (PAP) Central Executive Committee (CEC) making way for new blood, leadership renewal within the ruling party is in overdrive, said political analysts who expect the fourth generation leadership to take up most of the key positions left vacant.

Five senior positions — chairman, vice-chairman, first and second assistant secretaries-general, as well as treasurer — will see new faces, and the spotlight is on the second-in-command posts which will provide Singaporeans an indication of the identity of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s successor.

The new CEC elected on Sunday (Nov 11) will meet in a few weeks to determine its office-bearers, and several analysts told TODAY that they expect two of the frontrunners to succeed Mr Lee to assume the assistant secretary-general posts.

And the person appointed as first assistant secretary-general will, in all likelihood, be in line to become Singapore’s fourth Prime Minister.

One analyst, however, felt that Mr Lee could “keep an old hand on board”, with Mr K Shanmugam appointed as one of the two assistant secretaries-general.

“From my perspective, I expect Mr Shanmugam to take on one of the posts while one of the three frontrunners take on the other,” said Assistant Professor Woo Jun Jie from the Nanyang Technological University’s School of Social Sciences.

“If this happens, the 4G leader who takes on the assistant secretary-general role will likely become PM. At this point, it is difficult to tell who will take on this important role.”

In his speech before the CEC elections results were revealed at the PAP’s biennial party conference on Sunday, Mr Lee announced that five senior leaders — Mr Teo Chee Hean, Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam, Mr Khaw Boon Wan, Dr Yaacob Ibrahim and Mr Lim Swee Say — would be stepping down from the CEC, which is the party’s top decision-making body.

Mr Teo and Mr Tharman were the first and second assistant secretaries-general respectively, while Mr Khaw was the chairman. Dr Yaacob and Mr Lim were vice-chairman and treasurer respectively.

Among the 12 members elected to the new CEC, two-thirds were from the 4G leadership. Another from the group, Mrs Josephine Teo, was co-opted along with Dr Ng Eng Hen as they received the 13th and 14th highest number of votes.

Apart from Dr Ng, the only other 3G leaders on the new CEC are Mr Lee, Mr Shanmugam and Mr Gan Kim Yong.

Law professor Eugene Tan from the Singapore Management University said the major leadership changes send the message that the 4G leaders are “well-poised and ready to take on heavier responsibilities” in the PAP.

The decision by senior leaders to make way also reflects their “confidence and belief in their successors”, he added.

Asst Prof Woo noted that having five senior party leaders step down at the same time — the highest number since 2011 — “speaks to a certain urgency in the transition process”.

“This also speaks to a more cautious transition this time round as well as a more team-based approach,” he added.

SIM Global Education associate lecturer Felix Tan said the leadership shake-up also sends a message that the 4G leaders will play “much, much bigger roles” in terms of the PAP’s election tactics and strategy.

CADRES ‘UNDERSTAND NEED FOR RENEWAL’

Five cadres, who spoke to TODAY on the condition of anonymity as they were not allowed to speak to the media, expressed sadness at the senior leaders’ stepping down, given that they would still be able to lead the party. Nevertheless, they acknowledged that the injection of new blood was necessary.

A cadre, who is in his 60s and from Jurong Group Representation Constituency (GRC), described Mr Tharman – who is a Member of Parliament (MP) of the constituency – as one of the most “brilliant” PAP leaders he has seen. “He is not just intelligent in crafting and explaining policies, but he goes about doing it with heart. He understands the people’s concerns,” said the cadre. “It is a waste, but I believe he and the other senior leaders will still wield a significant influence.”

Another cadre in his 40s from Sembawang GRC — where Mr Khaw is an MP — pointed out that although Mr Khaw has stepped down from the party leadership, he remains a Cabinet Minister. “He is known as Mr ‘Fix-It’ and he always tries to do his best to address and explain difficult issues. We need leaders like him and I’m glad he is still in Cabinet,” said the cadre.

Speaking to reporters, Mr Shanmugam spoke about the “classic PAP approach” when it comes to leadership renewal. Party leaders step down voluntarily even though they are still able to serve, he said.

This enables a stable and effective leadership transition, as new leaders are “given new responsibilities to spread their wings to fly”, Mr Shanmugam added.

Asked about the likelihood of him taking on one of the assistant secretary-general posts, Mr Shanmugam dismissed such talk as “highly speculative”, adding: “In my own view, the assistant secretary-general positions should reflect the future… the key people and core of the next generation.”

In September, Mr Shanmugam said the line-up of the new CEC would give a clue to the identity of the country’s next Prime Minister.

Political analysts previously said they expect one, if not two, of the frontrunners — Mr Chan Chun Sing, 48, Mr Heng Swee Keat, 57, and Mr Ong Ye Kung, 48 — to assume the assistant secretary-general posts.

Following the CEC elections, Assoc Prof Tan said there is a possibility that two of the three frontrunners will be appointed as assistant secretaries-general.

If the party keeps with tradition, where the first assistant secretary-general is seen as the future party leader, then “all signs will point to the person appointed to the post as being Mr Lee’s successor”, he said.

He added: “But what is certain is that the race will be narrowed from three men to two.”

Agreeing, Dr Felix Tan said the party would also want to assess whether the two men “complement or compete with each other”.

“One will end up leading the team, while the other is most likely to be the deputy,” he said. “So, the party would want to see how the dynamics between the two will play out and whether they can ensure a cohesive team.”

As for the chairman position, the analysts expect a 3G leader such as Mr Shanmugam or Mr Gan to take on the role.

It is important to have an experienced chairman who has “the tenacity to hold the party together”, said Dr Tan. Both men fit the bill, he added.

A NEW POLITICAL STYLE?

Speaking to reporters after the party conference, Ms Indranee Rajah — who was among the 4G leaders elected to the CEC — reiterated that it is the responsibility of the committee to lead the party into the next polls. “You have to develop the manifesto, you have to develop the vision… what is going to be your strategy going forward,” said Ms Indranee, who is a Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.

Mr Darryl David, a PAP MP for Ang Mo Kio GRC, told TODAY that instead of merely “replacing” the senior leaders who stepped down, he hopes that the 4G leaders will bring fresh skill sets and “their own brand of leadership and (their) own style” to the table as they take the party forward.

Dr Felix Tan said that it is unlikely the 4G PAP leaders will adopt a different political style when it comes to the treatment of opposition parties and politician, for instance. The PAP is “rather predictable” in this aspect, he added.

Assoc Prof Eugene Tan reiterated that the 4G leaders “have not shown any inclination to take a different approach because that’s how they have been schooled”.

“But they will have to keep their eyes and ears on the ground because.... they are known to be good advocate of politics and governance, and there’s greater expectation that they take the lead and set the right tone,” he added.

Nevertheless, Asst Prof Woo thinks that the new leaders would take a “softer and more reasoned approach” to treating the opposition.

He said: “The 4G leadership is also much more sensitive to public perception and would hence be wary of being seen as overly aggressive.”