The January transfer window has been open for more than three weeks already and one thing is clear: As long as there are deals to be done, English Premier League (EPL) teams will spend money.

Of course, the spending in January is always lower than the pre-season — expenditure is usually concentrated in a handful of teams and tends to be focused on plugging gaps and urgent needs rather than team-building.

However, the uncertainty of Brexit and the possible economic slowdown that was tipped to paralyse the EPL’s summer window does not seem to be having a significant effect as clubs continue to feast on the new TV rights deal.

Since the record-breaking January window of 2011, when Premier League clubs spent £225 million (S$402 million), and the subsequent huge drop to just £60 million in 2012, spending in the winter window has been rising steadily, reaching £175 million in 2016.

However, despite 2017 feeling somewhat quiet, spending has already hit £143 million, with 76 deals as of Jan 23 — although £27 million of that relates to the finalisation of the Gabriel Jesus transfer to Manchester City that had been agreed back in August 2016.

It will take just one or two more big deals to make this the second-largest January window ever — and the 2011 mark may still be within reach.

As with any transfer window, supporters all long for a marquee signing for their club: A big name to excite them, galvanise their title charge or stave off the threat of relegation.

Given the riches of Champions League football and the income loss from relegation, the January transfer window may seem like the last throw of the dice for teams hovering around the top, or bottom, of the table.

But a closer look at recent years shows that most of what happens in January actually has very little effect on the final standings.

Much is often made of the Christmas standings as an indicator of final positions, and there is a significant element of truth in this. Only three teams that were bottom of the EPL on Christmas Day have survived — the most recent being Leicester City in 2014, who actually went on to be top on the same day a year later and win the title from that position.

More strikingly though, a study by Duncan Alexander in his book, Opta Joe’s Football Yearbook 2016, showed that in the EPL era, 16 per cent of teams finished in the exact same position at the end of the season that they held on Christmas Day.

To go further, a total of 42 per cent finished either in the same place or, at most, one place lower or higher; and 61 percent finished within two places of their Christmas standing.

So, statistically speaking, there is a strong probability that if your team was third at Christmas, they will finish between first and fifth, and their most likely finishing position will be third.

Looking at recent years, winter window spending is definitely no guarantee of success and stability is often craved.

However, as January signings are often to cover injured players or provide squad strength, for some teams, perhaps, a signing that can help them retain their position is achievement enough.

The 2014/15 season was a campaign that showed window spending is not necessarily the solution.

Leicester City, who, as previously mentioned were bottom going into January, signed just two players who ultimately had negligible impact — Andrej Kramaric (who scored just two goals in 13 appearances) and reserve keeper Mark Schwarzer — and yet went on to finish safe from relegation in 14th, thanks to a sensational run of form.

Meanwhile, Norwich City signed the most players — six in total for £25 million — and yet fell from 15th at the beginning of the year to be relegated in 19th.

The biggest spenders in the last four January transfer windows were:

• Liverpool (2012/13 — £24 million on Daniel Sturridge and Philippe Coutinho);

• Chelsea (2013/14 — £48 million on Nemanja Matic, Kurt Zouma and Mohamed Salah);

• Manchester City (2014/15 — £28 million on Wilfried Bony), and

• Newcastle United (2015/16 — £32 million on Andros Townsend, Jonjo Shelvey and Henri Saivet).

With the exception of the two Liverpool signings and perhaps Matic, it is difficult to call these signings a success.

Did the expenditure pay off immediately in that season? Not really.

Although Liverpool moved marginally from ninth on Jan 1 to seventh at the end of the season, the other three teams have one other telling statistic in common: They all finished the season in the same position they were in at the start of the January transfer window.

The signings did not help Chelsea and Man City move closer to the title from their respective third and second positions at the beginning of the year. And alas for Newcastle, their desperate and expensive gamble did not move them at all from occupying 18th position and the last relegation spot.

Still, there have been some notable January successes over the years.

Luis Suarez was another January move to Liverpool along with Javier Mascherano; Patrice Evra and Nemanja Vidic were winter signings for Manchester United; and Gary Cahill (to Chelsea), Mikel Arteta (to Everton) and Asmir Begovic (to Stoke) were all good moves.

However, for each of those successes, there is a Christopher Samba (to Queens Park Rangers), a Savio Nsereko (West Ham), an Andy Carroll (to Liverpool), a Juan Cuadrado (Chelsea) or — most famously — Fernando Torres’ £50 million Chelsea move from Liverpool.

So far in this window, the biggest spenders — and on recent performances, perhaps wisely — have been Everton, who have often been referred to this season as the ‘‘best of the rest’’ and a team with very little to play for except seventh place.

The next few days will show whether any of the six teams above Everton take a gamble to strengthen their claim to a top-four position or boost a title run, or whether the teams in the dogfight at the bottom decide to spend now to retain their lucrative status in the league for another season.

In the business of football, spending does not always guarantee success — and unlike on the wintry high streets of England, in the Premier League, the January sales rarely throw up any bargains.

About the author:

James Walton is a clients & markets partner for Deloitte Singapore and South-east Asia, and heads the Sports Business service line.