It seems incredible to think that a transfer window in which £3.98 billion (S$6.99 billion) was spent in the big five European leagues is being seen by many as an anti-climax. As the clubs take stock during the international break and supporters rush to find out more about their new stars, how will the 2017 summer transfer window be remembered? Our guest columnist James Walton shares his thoughts.

The Premier League Leads the Way…. Again. 

Although the biggest individual move was between Spain and France, the English Premier League (EPL) once again led the way with a staggering £1.4 billion of spending far eclipsing the previous record of £1.165 billion – a 23 percent rise. 

Nearly half of the Premier League’s spend came from four teams – Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and the newly-rich Everton. In fact, only five clubs made a profit on their summer dealings – Arsenal, Burnley, Stoke City, Swansea City and Tottenham Hotspur. 

A lot has been written about the immense spending power of even the lowliest Premier League clubs with the new television deal entering its second year.

But what really defines the EPL spending is the relative equality compared to the Spanish, German, French and Italian Leagues: certainly there are very few teams on the continent the size of Crystal Palace splashing £26 million on a player as Palace did on Mamadou Sakho. 

Every team in the Premier League received at least £100 million in prize money (including television revenue share and positional prize money) last season with even a small team like Bournemouth receiving £123.9 million compared to Chelsea’s £153.2 million as winners.

Hence while the big teams led the way in spending, even relative minnows like Huddersfield Town, West Bromwich Albion, Burnley and Watford were able to comfortably spend over £40 million each. 

Whilst in the context of the £5.136 billion telvision deal, the numbers can be hard to comprehend, it is important to look at the trend behind this – this year’s spending represented 31 percent of the revenues of the Premier League teams, which is a big increase from the average of 22 percent over the years.

Every year we ask if this is the year the EPL ‘bubble finally bursts’, and every year it even more outrageously defies that prediction – with the latest transfer fee hyperinflation, spending shows no signs of abating and now the big question is whether the next TV deal will allow the trend to continue. 

Expiring Contracts Still Hold Value

Over the years since the Bosman ruling, we have all come to terms with how the brave new dawn of player empowerment affected transfer fees as contracts wound down.

We thought we had got our heads around a simple principle: once a player enters the last year of his contract, his value diminishes significantly and his club faces a choice if they cannot convince him to renew: cash in early for a reduced fee or risk getting nothing – as Tottenham Hotspur found out to their chagrin with Sol Campbell. 

This transfer window may force us to reconsider that notion as we see huge fees being paid for players who will be available for free transfers in just nine short months from now. 

Take Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain: here is a player who was courted by both Chelsea and his eventual choice Liverpool, at an initial fee of £35 million. Yet ‘The Ox’, as he is known to English football fans, had less than one year left on his contract.

Yes, he is still young, having turned 24 last week – but in prior years, a player of his ilk already into the last year of his contract would be changing hands for between £10-15 million. 

Ross Barkley is another case in point – another young player who had less than a year left on his contract.

Everton, seeing the prices bandied around this summer – including the £45 million they paid themselves for Gylfi Sigurdsson – stuck a price tag of £50 million on him, although they eventually were persuaded to do business with Chelsea at around £30 million before the deal fell through due to the player’s choice. 

What happens next for Barkley? Expect Everton to try to cash in one last time for £15-20 million in January – most likely to Tottenham Hotspur – rather than risk losing him for nothing come June 2018.

Arsenal faced a similar quandary with Alexis Sanchez. However, in this case, the stakes were higher as selling him would be seen as a damning statement on their ambition.

Sources in the know suggested that initially Arsenal’s position was to hang onto Sanchez at all costs because his presence represents their best chance of getting back into the lucrative Champions League next season. If they believe they can only accomplish that with him in the side, then it makes sense to forgo a fee at which you can’t buy an adequate replacement.

However, Arsenal seemed to change their position as the window closed, Sanchez made his position known and Manchester City finally made their move; as a result, Arsenal nearly did a deal to exit him for £55 million, only to pull the plug when their attempted purchase of Thomas Lemar proved impossible.

Again, £55 million for a player in the last year of his contract seems immense compared to our Bosman frame of reference – but in this case, the argument would be that if he were under long-term contract, the fee would be closer to the £100 million plus numbers being talked about for Philippe Coutinho. 

The Deals That Never Were

The mention of Sanchez, Lemar, Barkley and Coutinho brings us to the topic of the deals that never were. As high as the Premier League’s spending was, if even half of the deals that were seen as certain had happened, we could have been talking about a number closer to £1.7 billion and up.

A number of big moves were expected right up until the close of the window but never materialised – some coming closer to others. 

Deals were agreed for Thomas Lemar (£92 million to Arsenal) and Ross Barkley (£35 million to Chelsea) but didn’t happen for the reasons mentioned above.

On deadline day, the Algerian national team reported that Riyad Mahrez was leaving their camp to complete a deal – this now appears to be a ploy on his part to drum up interest as in fact no one had made a serious attempt to sign him. 

Other deals that were expected included Jonny Evans to Manchester City, Diego Costa out of Chelsea (most likely to Atlético Madrid), Coutinho to Barcelona (which would have most likely led to Barcelona selling André Gomes to Tottenham) and Virgil van Dijk out of Southampton with Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City desperate for defensive cover.

Any of these moves could have sparked a further carousel of moves on deadline day.

Winners and Losers – As the Dust Settles

So which teams won and lost in the transfer window? It’s always hard to tell if a big signing will justify their fee but certainly Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United (who were notably absent from any deadline day happenings) are all generally considered to have had good windows, even if City and Liverpool have failed to address their central defensive shortcomings.

Everton fans are reasonably happy, although perhaps nervous about a lack of a goalscorer now that Lukaku has moved on. 

At Chelsea, there is a feeling that Antonio Conte would have liked more depth to be added – losing Fernando Llorente to Tottenham and missing out on Barkley were blows as they pursue domestic and continental success – especially if Costa remains out in the cold. 

Meanwhile, Arsenal fans saw several players leave in the last week of the window with no replacements. As grateful as they are to have held onto Sanchez (for now) and added Alexandre Lacazette, there is a feeling that the defence is still light. 

Perhaps the most worried fans are those of West Ham United, Crystal Palace and Newcastle United though.

At the beginning of August, the feeling as that West Ham United were doing well in the transfer market – but starting the season with three straight losses and no further reinforcements has destroyed that optimism. David Sullivan’s comments that manager Slaven Bilic turned down the chance to sign Renato Sanches and Grzegorz Krychowiak will not help.

Crystal Palace still feel light upfront if anything happens to Christian Benteke – and again, their start to the season had fans begging for new blood, and only the return of Sakho to show for it. 

Newcastle fans will be most worried though: Rafa Benítez is casting one eye towards the exit following a lacklustre window where owner Mike Ashley didn’t invest enough to help the manager achieve his stated goal to get the club back into Europe. 

For now, European clubs can catch their breath as World Cup qualifiers take centre stage. But in a week from now, players, managers and owners alike will feel the white hot glare of media scrutiny as we start to find out who really won this biggest of all windows. 

About the author:

James Walton is Sports Business Group Leader at Deloitte Southeast Asia

20917 SUNMMER TRANSFER WONDOW'S BIGGEST DEALS:

Neymar                       £198 million            Barcelona to Paris Saint-Germain  
Ousmane Dembélé    £  96 million             Borussia Dortmund to Barcelona
Romelu Lukaku          £  75 million             Everton to Manchester United
Álvaro Morata             £  58 million            Real Madrid to Chelsea
Benjamin Mendy         £ 52 million             Monaco to Manchester City