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Let others run different population projections, and compare

The most striking feature of the White Paper is the projected population of 6.9 million by 2030 as the worst-case scenario.

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The most striking feature of the White Paper is the projected population of 6.9 million by 2030 as the worst-case scenario.

Given the many concerns and unhappiness the people have over transport, housing and congestion, releasing this White Paper is a bold, decisive move. Figures in the White Paper are not targets, though.

Those who think that Singapore does not need so many immigrants or foreign workers should suggest what the alternative numbers should be. The same goes for those who feel that the control over foreign labour is too tight and would inhibit economic growth.

Ideally, they should feed their suggested numbers, together with other assumptions, into a mathematical demographic model to foresee how the demographic landscape would develop in the next few decades.

The Institute of Policy Studies and the National Population and Talent Division should allow concerned organisations, including political parties, to use their projection models and help them generate the projected scenarios.

The public could then be able to compare these projections with that of the Government, in particular, the projected demographic characteristics for the next few decades.

The public could then evaluate which projected demographic landscape would give Singapore a better chance for continued prosperity beyond 2030, up to 2050.

The public could also understand better the economic benefits, opportunity costs and various trade-offs in each set of projections. Only then could we have more informed and productive debate on the issue.

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