BEIRUT — In Libya, armed militias have filled a void left by a revolution that felled a dictator. In Syria, a popular uprising has morphed into a civil war that has left more than 100,000 dead and provided a haven for Islamic extremists. In Tunisia, increasingly bitter political divisions have delayed the drafting of a new Constitution.

And now in Egypt, often considered the trendsetter of the Arab world, the army and security forces, after having toppled the elected Islamist President, have killed hundreds of his supporters, declared a State of Emergency and worsened a deep polarisation.

It is clear that the region’s old status quo, dominated by imperious rulers who fixed elections, ruled by fiat and quashed dissent, has been fundamentally damaged, if not overthrown, in the three years since the outbreak of the uprisings optimistically known as the Arab Spring.

What is unclear, however, is the replacement model. Most of the uprisings have devolved into bitter struggles, as a mix of political powers battle over the rules of participation, the relationship between the military and the government, the role of religion in public life and what it means to be a citizen, not a subject.

Middle East historians and analysts say that the political and economic stagnation under decades of autocratic rule that led to the uprisings also left Arab countries ill equipped to build new governments and civil society. While some of the movements achieved their initial goals, removing longtime leaders in four countries, their wider aims — democracy, dignity, human rights, social equality and economic security — now appear more distant than ever.

“The old regional order has gone, the new regional order is being drawn in blood, and it is going to take a long time,” said Mr Sarkis Naoum, a political analyst at Lebanon’s An Nahar newspaper. “All the people in those countries lived under similar suppression despite the differences in their regimes, so the uprisings were contagious,” he said. “But nobody in Syria, Libya, Egypt or Tunisia who wanted to get rid of the regime was prepared for what came next.”

Throughout the region, the upheavals have so far failed to address the demands of millions of ordinary citizens who had clamoured for change — for jobs, food, healthcare and basic human dignity. If anything, their grievances have worsened.

“Most Middle East economies buffeted by the Arab Spring were already going in the wrong direction,” said Mr Joshua M Landis, Director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Economic distress caused by swelling youth populations, joblessness, rising prices and drought, he said, had done as much to cause the uprisings as political oppression. In many ways, he said, “the Arab Spring is the canary in the mine shaft for a broader problem — fragmented countries, too much population growth, terrible education systems, too little water — these countries are the losers”.

Historians said, given the repressive autocracies among Arab countries, the convulsions in Egypt and elsewhere were painful but inevitable. “I am not writing these transitions off — I just think we’re heading into a period of extreme unrest,” said Ms Mona Yacoubian, a Senior Middle East Adviser at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington.

Others noted that such turmoil often obscured subtle but profound societal changes. For example, Mr Ziad Al Ali, a Cairo-based constitutional expert, said it has now become normal for citizens of Arab Spring countries to insult their rulers — unthinkable only a few years ago.

“This dynamic of free expression, of political liberalisation where now you have lots of political parties and people expressing themselves freely, this will lead us in a positive direction in the long run,” he said.

Mr Mohammed Al Sabri, an opposition leader in Yemen, where protests pushed longtime Mr Ali Abdullah Saleh from power last year, said this general sense of empowerment was the most significant accomplishment of the uprisings so far. “The elites and the leaders in any society, whether it is revolutionary or not, can resign and say: ‘I’m done’,” he said. “But the people cannot resign.” The New York Times